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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Liverpool run riot with a 3-6 hammering of Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Tottenham 3-6 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 2.12 xG and Liverpool 1.96 xG, a combined 4.09. The scoreboard read 3-6 for 9 actual goals. Tottenham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Liverpool outscored their 1.96 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.33 / defence 1.06 against Liverpool attack 1.24 / defence 1.04, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 42% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 35%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Liverpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 76%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.66. That form edge translated into the three points. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights