Tottenham 1-2 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 67% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Tottenham face Leicester.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Leicester travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on Tottenham in Premier League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Tottenham have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tottenham's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Tottenham are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Leicester — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Leicester away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tottenham 0.50 PPG, Leicester 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Tottenham's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Tottenham have won 3, Leicester 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2024, ended Tottenham 1–1 Leicester — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Tottenham trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Leicester trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tottenham 68% and Leicester 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Tottenham 77% | Leicester 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tottenham surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Leicester have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 2.94 xG and Leicester 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.287 / defence 1.276 | Leicester attack 0.732 / defence 1.537. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.556. Tottenham carry an above-average attack rating of 1.287 — their 2.94 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Leicester's defence rating of 1.537 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tottenham's projected output up. Leicester's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.45. Tottenham's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Leicester's projected output up. Data: built from Tottenham's last 60 games and Leicester's last 22.
Result probabilities: Tottenham 67% | Draw 17% | Leicester 16%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 1.49 | Draw 5.88 | Leicester 6.34. The model has a clear lean to Tottenham (67%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 4.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.94 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 67% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tottenham's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tottenham 90% (last 10 home games) | Leicester 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 67% | Draw 17% | Leicester 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% (Under 19%) | BTTS Yes 73% (No 27%) | xG Tottenham 2.94 / Leicester 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.287 / def 1.276 | Leicester attack 0.732 / def 1.537 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.556 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Leicester xG
73%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tottenham vs Leicester FAQs
What time does Tottenham vs Leicester kick off?
Tottenham vs Leicester kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Leicester?
Tottenham 1 - 2 Leicester.
Where is Tottenham vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Leicester part of?
Tottenham vs Leicester is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 67% chance of winning, Leicester a 16% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Tottenham and Leicester will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tottenham vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tottenham's attack rating (1.29) and Leicester's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tottenham's last 60 games and Leicester's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (6.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
67%
1.49
17%
5.88
16%
6.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
2 – 2
5.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Tottenham xG
Total xG
4.39
1.45
Leicester xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.88
17%
Draw
6.34
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
5%
18.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
1%
119.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tottenham vs Leicester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.45 for Leicester, a combined total of 4.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Leicester?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tottenham's recent record stands at 27W 9D 24L from 60 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Leicester, meanwhile, have gone 27W 9D 24L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tottenham on 1.50 PPG, Leicester on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tottenham have managed 16W 2D 11L from their last 29 home games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Leicester's away record stands at 11W 5D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tottenham are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.63 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Leicester
Blended
Tottenham (Home) vs Leicester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tottenham
Blended
Leicester
Blended
❓ Tottenham vs Leicester Form FAQs
What form are Tottenham and Leicester in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Leicester have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Leicester away?
Tottenham's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.72 PPG; Leicester away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from January 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Sep 2022, when Tottenham won Tottenham 6-2 Leicester.
Tottenham's record when hosting Leicester specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Tottenham
1
Draws
2
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Tottenham vs Leicester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Leicester?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Tottenham have won 3, Leicester have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Leicester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2025: Tottenham 1-2 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Leicester?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tottenham at 86%, Leicester at 66%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Tottenham and 69% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tottenham vs Leicester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tottenham and Leicester matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Tottenham's games and 66% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tottenham and Leicester matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Tottenham's matches and 69% of Leicester's.
Do Tottenham and Leicester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Tottenham's recent matches and 79% of Leicester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Leicester defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 2.94 xG and Leicester 1.45 xG, a combined 4.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Tottenham fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.29 / defence 1.28 against Leicester attack 0.73 / defence 1.54, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 67% | Draw 17% | Leicester 16%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Leicester win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 77%, Leicester 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Leicester's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.50 PPG, Leicester 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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