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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Fulham defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.50 xG and Fulham 1.09 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.83 / defence 1.07 against Fulham attack 0.83 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Fulham 28%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Fulham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Fulham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.12 PPG, Fulham 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights