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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Tottenham defy the odds to beat Everton 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham beat Everton 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.25 xG and Everton 1.77 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Everton landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.86 / defence 1.35 against Everton attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 26% | Draw 26% | Everton 48%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Tottenham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Everton 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Everton's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.01 PPG, Everton 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights