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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Tottenham 1-3 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.24 xG and Crystal Palace 1.48 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Crystal Palace outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.91 / defence 1.29 against Crystal Palace attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 30% | Draw 29% | Crystal Palace 41%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 65%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.02 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights