🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Tottenham 0-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.86 xG and Crystal Palace 1.65 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Tottenham fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Crystal Palace attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 43% | Draw 22% | Crystal Palace 35%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Crystal Palace win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 73%, Crystal Palace 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.42 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights