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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chelsea edge out Tottenham 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Tottenham 0-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.16 xG and Chelsea 1.72 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tottenham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Chelsea attack 1.32 / defence 0.89, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 26% | Draw 24% | Chelsea 50%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Chelsea 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Chelsea's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Chelsea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights