Tottenham vs Chelsea – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Tottenham's attack rating (1.21) and Chelsea's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chelsea's attack (1.41x) against Tottenham's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
33%
2.99
24%
4.10
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.52
1.87
Chelsea xG
2.99
33%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
5%
19.35
8%
12.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Chelsea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Chelsea expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.87 for Chelsea, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Chelsea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.