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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Brighton run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Tottenham 1-4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.63 xG and Brighton 1.91 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Brighton outscored their 1.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.96 / defence 1.20 against Brighton attack 1.16 / defence 1.16, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 33% | Draw 22% | Brighton 45%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 71%, Brighton 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Brighton's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.39 PPG, Brighton 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brighton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights