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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tottenham and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Tottenham and Bournemouth drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.58 xG and Bournemouth 2.10 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.03 / defence 1.15 against Bournemouth attack 1.22 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 29% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 50%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 74%, Bournemouth 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Bournemouth's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.52 PPG, Bournemouth 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights