Tottenham 0-1 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tottenham face Arsenal.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tottenham host Arsenal at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tottenham — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tottenham have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Tottenham are significantly better at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Arsenal have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Arsenal have gone 9W 1D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arsenal — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Arsenal have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for Tottenham.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Arsenal winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Arsenal have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 71% versus Arsenal 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Tottenham 78% | Arsenal 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.29 xG and Arsenal 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.291 / defence 0.874 | Arsenal attack 1.158 / defence 0.700. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.498. Tottenham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.700 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Tottenham games / 41 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 30% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 40%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Arsenal 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tottenham 80% | Arsenal 20%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 30% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Tottenham 1.29 / Arsenal 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.291 / def 0.874 | Arsenal attack 1.158 / def 0.700 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Arsenal xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Arsenal kick off?
Tottenham vs Arsenal kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Tottenham 0 - 1 Arsenal.
Where is Tottenham vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Arsenal part of?
Tottenham vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 30% chance of winning, Arsenal a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Tottenham and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Arsenal?
Record (6 meetings): Tottenham 1W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 4W.
What form are Tottenham and Arsenal in?
Tottenham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Arsenal (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tottenham's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
30%
3.30
29%
3.42
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.80
1.51
Arsenal xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.51 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Tottenham have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 21W 7D 13L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arsenal's form line: 30W 6D 5L from 41 games, 2.34 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Arsenal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tottenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tottenham have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (14W 0D 6L).
On the road, Arsenal have gone 14W 3D 3L from 20 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Tottenham are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.34 scored and 0.73 conceded. Tottenham's scoring rate against Arsenal's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Arsenal in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Early Season
Arsenal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 21W 7D 13L in their last 41 games (1.71 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 30W 6D 5L in their last 41 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 2.10 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Arsenal in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Arsenal go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2022, when Tottenham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tottenham
1
Draws
8
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 1, Arsenal have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 80%, Arsenal 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Tottenham and 50% for Arsenal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Arsenal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Tottenham's games and 30% of Arsenal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tottenham vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Tottenham's matches and 50% of Arsenal's.
Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Tottenham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Tottenham 0-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.29 xG and Arsenal 1.51 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tottenham fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.29 / defence 0.87 against Arsenal attack 1.16 / defence 0.70, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 30% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 40%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 78%, Arsenal 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Arsenal's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.