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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Chelsea 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Chelsea 2-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.01 xG and Chelsea 1.46 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against Chelsea attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 25% | Draw 29% | Chelsea 46%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 43%, Chelsea 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Chelsea's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.45 PPG, Chelsea 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights