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Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Burnley 3-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.79 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burnley landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Burnley attack 0.86 / defence 1.30, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 54% | Draw 28% | Burnley 17%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 44%, Burnley 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Burnley's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.55 PPG, Burnley 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights