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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 20

Kick-off

Sat 4 Jan 2025

15:00

Venue

St. Mary's Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Brentford Win

21%

Southampton

4.83

29%

Draw

3.39

50%

Brentford

2.01

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

12.3%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

0 – 2

9.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.97

Southampton xG

Total xG

2.56

1.60

Brentford xG

21%
29%
50%
SouthamptonDrawBrentford

4.83

21%

Home win

3.39

29%

Draw

2.01

50%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.94

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

20%

Southampton

4.93

38%

Brentford

2.63

Win to Nil

4%

Southampton

23.82

19%

Brentford

5.28

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.7 12.3 9.8 5.2 2.1 0.7
1 7.5 11.9 9.5 5.1 2.0 0.6
2 3.6 5.8 4.6 2.4 1.0 0.3
3 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.968
λ Away (xG) 1.596
Total xG 2.564
League avg home goals 1.467
League avg away goals 1.477
Southampton attack strength 0.641
Southampton defence strength 1.548
Brentford attack strength 0.698
Brentford defence strength 1.029
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 19 / 57