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Dominant West Ham run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nottingham Forest.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Nottingham Forest 0-3 at City Ground, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.81 xG and West Ham 1.01 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.8 short of their projected output. West Ham outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 1.10 / defence 0.92 against West Ham attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 56% | Draw 23% | West Ham 21%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a West Ham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 50%, West Ham 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

West Ham's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights