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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Tottenham 3-0 at City Ground, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.24 xG and Tottenham 2.08 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Tottenham landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against Tottenham attack 1.30 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 22% | Draw 21% | Tottenham 57%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Nottingham Forest win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Tottenham 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.

Tottenham's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.51 PPG, Tottenham 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights