Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Newcastle travel to City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 March 2027, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's home record at City Ground: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Newcastle stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Newcastle have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nottingham Forest 0.90 PPG, Newcastle 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Newcastle, who boast 6 victories compared to 1 for Nottingham Forest.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Newcastle have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Newcastle trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 48% versus Newcastle 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 50% | Newcastle 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.35 xG and Newcastle 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.824 / defence 0.884 | Newcastle attack 0.981 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.163. Data: 48 Nottingham Forest games / 48 Newcastle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 28%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Newcastle 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nottingham Forest at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 50% | Newcastle 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Mar 2027, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 27% | Newcastle 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.35 / Newcastle 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.824 / def 0.884 | Newcastle attack 0.981 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Newcastle xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Wednesday 3 March 2027 at City Ground.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 44% chance of winning, Newcastle a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Newcastle will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle?
Record (8 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 1 | Newcastle 6W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Newcastle in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Newcastle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Newcastle's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.64
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.35
1.01
Newcastle xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.01 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 13W 14D 21L from 48 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Newcastle, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 21L across 48 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.10 PPG, Newcastle on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 5W 9D 10L from 24 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Newcastle's away record stands at 6W 6D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.38 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 17W 10D 21L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Newcastle away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.00 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
6
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Newcastle have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Newcastle last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 42%, Newcastle 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nottingham Forest) and 46% (Newcastle).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 54% of games; Newcastle in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Newcastle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 54% of Newcastle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 46% of Newcastle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Newcastle tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Newcastle in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More UK football predictions →