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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Nottingham Forest edge out Manchester United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Manchester United 1-0 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.45 xG and Manchester United 0.85 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Manchester United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 / defence 0.64 against Manchester United attack 0.91 / defence 0.87, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 51% | Draw 27% | Manchester United 22%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 54%, Manchester United 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Manchester United's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.34 PPG, Manchester United 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Manchester United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights