Nottingham Forest 1-0 Leeds – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Leeds encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Leeds make the trip to The City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nottingham Forest's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nottingham Forest have posted 4W 3D 3L at The City Ground — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Leeds have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Nottingham Forest. A 0.70 PPG lead over Leeds (1.60 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Leeds — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 40% versus Leeds 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 40% | Leeds 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.48 xG and Leeds 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.894 / defence 0.989 | Leeds attack 0.971 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.160. Data: 20 Nottingham Forest games / 57 Leeds games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 45% | Draw 27% | Leeds 28%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Leeds 3.57. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 50% | Leeds 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 45% | Draw 27% | Leeds 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.48 / Leeds 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.894 / def 0.989 | Leeds attack 0.971 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Leeds xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Leeds kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Leeds.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Leeds being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Leeds part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 45% chance of winning, Leeds a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Leeds will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Leeds have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Leeds?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Leeds in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Leeds (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nottingham Forest's attack at 0.89x the league average against Leeds's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Leeds's attack (0.97x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 20/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.70
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.59
1.11
Leeds xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Leeds expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.11 for Leeds, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Leeds?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 15D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Leeds sit at 0.98 PPG from 57 outings (13W 17D 27L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Leeds — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 16W 6D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Leeds have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (6W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Leeds are on 1.19 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Leeds
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Leeds in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 15D 16L in their last 57 games (1.63 PPG), while Leeds have gone 13W 17D 27L in their last 57 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Leeds away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.93 PPG; Leeds away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Leeds been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Leeds in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Leeds — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
0
Draws
2
Leeds
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Leeds?
From 4 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Leeds have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Leeds last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Leeds 3-1 Nottingham Forest.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 43%, Leeds 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nottingham Forest) and 68% (Leeds). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Leeds in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Leeds away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Leeds?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 61% of Leeds's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Leeds usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 68% of Leeds's.
Prediction vindicated as Nottingham Forest edge out Leeds 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Leeds 1-0 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.48 xG and Leeds 1.11 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Leeds landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Leeds attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 20/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 45% | Draw 27% | Leeds 28%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 40%, Leeds 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Leeds's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.