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Stalemate at Nottingham Forest's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest and Fulham finished level at 0-0 at City Ground, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.16 xG and Fulham 1.18 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.72 / defence 0.93 against Fulham attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 31% | Fulham 35%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Fulham 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fulham's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.39 PPG, Fulham 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights