Nottingham Forest vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Nottingham Forest take on Everton.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Everton make the trip to City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

Nottingham Forest (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Nottingham Forest at City Ground this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at City Ground this season.

Everton have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Everton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Nottingham Forest's favour (1.60 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 8 meetings, Everton have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Nottingham Forest's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Everton winning.

It is worth noting that Everton have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Everton — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 48% versus Everton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 52% | Everton 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 0.84 xG and Everton 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.709 / defence 0.842 | Everton attack 0.807 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.253. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Nottingham Forest games / 42 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 30% | Draw 39% | Everton 31%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.33 | Draw 2.56 | Everton 3.23. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Nottingham Forest's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.

Picks & Verdict

Everton lead the H2H ledger, but Nottingham Forest carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.69 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Nottingham Forest 50% | Everton 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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