Nottingham Forest vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Everton (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nottingham Forest face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 December 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Nottingham Forest (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest at City Ground this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Everton have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Everton are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Everton have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Nottingham Forest's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Everton winning.
It is worth noting that Everton have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Everton — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 47% versus Everton 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 49% | Everton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 0.77 xG and Everton 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.632 / defence 0.910 | Everton attack 0.876 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.170. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.632 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Nottingham Forest games / 47 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 29% | Draw 34% | Everton 38%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Everton 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Nottingham Forest's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 40% | Everton 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 29% | Draw 34% | Everton 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Nottingham Forest 0.77 / Everton 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.632 / def 0.910 | Everton attack 0.876 / def 0.854 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Everton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Everton xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Everton kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Everton is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at City Ground.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Everton part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Everton is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 29% chance of winning, Everton a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
Record (8 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 2 | Everton 5W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Everton in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Everton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.88x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
29%
3.50
34%
2.96
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
1.71
0.93
Everton xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 17.0 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.93 for Everton, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 14D 21L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.32 PPG from 47 outings (16W 14D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Nottingham Forest against 1.32 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 4W 9D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.19 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Everton in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 12W 14D 21L in their last 47 games (1.06 PPG), while Everton have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Everton away?
Everton's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 0.91 PPG; Everton away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Everton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Everton have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
5
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Everton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Everton see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 39%, Everton 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Nottingham Forest and 35% for Everton.
On the defensive side: Everton in 30%; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 56% of games; Everton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 48% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 35% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.