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Everton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nottingham Forest.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Nottingham Forest 0-2 at City Ground, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.09 xG and Everton 0.99 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Everton outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Everton attack 0.72 / defence 0.76, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 38% | Draw 30% | Everton 32%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 52%, Everton 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Everton's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.48 PPG, Everton 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights