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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth finished level at 1-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.06 xG and Bournemouth 1.23 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Bournemouth attack 1.09 / defence 0.87, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 30% | Draw 31% | Bournemouth 39%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 52%, Bournemouth 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Bournemouth's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.44 PPG, Bournemouth 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights