Norwich 1-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Norwich vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Norwich host Crystal Palace at Carrow Road in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 9 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Norwich — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Norwich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norwich at Carrow Road this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Norwich) versus 0.80 (Crystal Palace). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Norwich have won 0, Crystal Palace 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Crystal Palace winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Norwich in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 32% versus Crystal Palace 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 59% | Crystal Palace 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 0.98 xG and Crystal Palace 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 0.637 / defence 1.384 | Crystal Palace attack 0.774 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.296. Norwich's attack strength of 0.637 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crystal Palace bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Norwich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Norwich games / 22 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norwich 26% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 46%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Crystal Palace 2.17. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Norwich 50% | Crystal Palace 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 26% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Norwich 0.98 / Crystal Palace 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 0.637 / def 1.384 | Crystal Palace attack 0.774 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norwich vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Norwich vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Crystal Palace?
Norwich 1 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Norwich vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Crystal Palace part of?
Norwich vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 26% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Norwich and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Norwich vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Crystal Palace?
Record (1 meetings): Norwich 0W | Draws 0 | Crystal Palace 1W.
What form are Norwich and Crystal Palace in?
Norwich (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Crystal Palace (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Norwich's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
26%
3.82
28%
3.57
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.37
1.39
Crystal Palace xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Norwich and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Norwich and 1.39 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 22 outings, Norwich have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 4W 4D 14L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Norwich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace's form line: 5W 9D 8L from 22 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Norwich on 0.73 PPG, Crystal Palace on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Norwich have posted 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Norwich are averaging 0.59 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.41 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norwich and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 4W 4D 14L in their last 22 games (0.73 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 5W 9D 8L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Crystal Palace away?
Norwich's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 0.80 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norwich and Crystal Palace runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Norwich
1
Draws
1
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Crystal Palace?
From 2 meetings on record, Norwich have won 0, Crystal Palace have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2022, when Norwich 1-1 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 50%, Crystal Palace 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Norwich and 60% for Crystal Palace. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Norwich have failed to score in 50% of games; Crystal Palace in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norwich play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Norwich's recent matches and 40% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norwich vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Norwich's matches and 60% of Crystal Palace's.
Norwich and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 24, as Norwich and Crystal Palace drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 0.98 xG and Crystal Palace 1.39 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.64 / defence 1.38 against Crystal Palace attack 0.77 / defence 1.32, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 26% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 46%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 59%, Crystal Palace 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norwich 0.73 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.