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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newcastle and Tottenham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 14, as Newcastle and Tottenham drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.67 xG and Tottenham 1.49 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.12 / defence 0.90 against Tottenham attack 1.28 / defence 0.98, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 42% | Draw 24% | Tottenham 34%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 61%, Tottenham 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Tottenham's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights