Newcastle 2-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newcastle at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Tottenham travel to St. James' Park to take on Newcastle. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Newcastle stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Newcastle have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Newcastle have posted 5W 4D 1L at St. James' Park — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tottenham — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Tottenham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Tottenham away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Newcastle carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Newcastle, 3 for Tottenham and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 4–0 with Newcastle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Newcastle in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Newcastle 60% and Tottenham 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Newcastle 68% | Tottenham 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.78 xG and Tottenham 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.096 / defence 0.857 | Tottenham attack 0.954 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.476. Data: 40 Newcastle games / 40 Tottenham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Newcastle 49% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 24%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Tottenham 4.17. Newcastle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Newcastle are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newcastle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 70% | Tottenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 49% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Newcastle 1.78 / Tottenham 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.096 / def 0.857 | Tottenham attack 0.954 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Tottenham xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Tottenham kick off?
Newcastle vs Tottenham kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Tottenham?
Newcastle 2 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is Newcastle vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Tottenham part of?
Newcastle vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 49% chance of winning, Tottenham a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Newcastle and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Tottenham?
Record (6 meetings): Newcastle 3W | Draws 0 | Tottenham 3W.
What form are Newcastle and Tottenham in?
Newcastle (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Tottenham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.10) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.67
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.98
1.21
Tottenham xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
4%
24.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.21 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Newcastle come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 7D 14L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Newcastle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Tottenham sit at 1.75 PPG from 40 outings (21W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Tottenham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newcastle on 1.60 PPG, Tottenham on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Newcastle's home form reads 13W 4D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Newcastle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Tottenham have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Newcastle are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.98 scored and 1.55 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Tottenham in 70%.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Early Season
Tottenham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 19W 7D 14L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 21W 7D 12L in their last 40 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Tottenham away?
Newcastle's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 2.15 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Newcastle and Tottenham runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newcastle's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Newcastle
1
Draws
3
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 6, Tottenham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Tottenham?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 55%, Tottenham 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Newcastle and 70% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Tottenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Newcastle's games and 60% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Newcastle's matches and 70% of Tottenham's.
Prediction vindicated as Newcastle edge out Tottenham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Tottenham 2-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.78 xG and Tottenham 1.21 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Tottenham attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 49% | Draw 27% | Tottenham 24%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 68%, Tottenham 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Tottenham's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.60 PPG, Tottenham 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.