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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 29

Kick-off

Wed 4 Mar 2026

20:15

Venue

St. James' Park

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester United Win

35%

Newcastle

2.87

24%

Draw

4.17

41%

Manchester United

2.43

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

8.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

8.2%

Away win

2 – 1

7.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.75

Newcastle xG

Total xG

3.66

1.91

Manchester United xG

35%
24%
41%
NewcastleDrawManchester United

2.87

35%

Home win

4.17

24%

Draw

2.43

41%

Away win

Goals Markets

88%

Over 1.5

1.14

12%

Under 1.5

8.33

71%

Over 2.5

1.41

29%

Under 2.5

3.45

50%

Over 3.5

2.00

50%

Under 3.5

2.00

31%

Over 4.5

3.23

69%

Under 4.5

1.45

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

72%

BTTS Yes

1.40

28%

BTTS No

3.51

Clean Sheet

15%

Newcastle

6.75

17%

Manchester United

5.76

Win to Nil

5%

Newcastle

19.37

7%

Manchester United

13.98

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.6 4.9 4.7 3.0 1.4 0.5
1 4.5 8.6 8.2 5.2 2.5 1.0
2 3.9 7.5 7.2 4.6 2.2 0.8
3 2.3 4.4 4.2 2.7 1.3 0.5
4 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2
5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.751
λ Away (xG) 1.909
Total xG 3.660
League avg home goals 1.412
League avg away goals 1.299
Newcastle attack strength 1.232
Newcastle defence strength 1.280
Manchester United attack strength 1.148
Manchester United defence strength 1.007
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66