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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Manchester United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Manchester United 4-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.53 xG and Manchester United 1.25 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.26 / defence 1.00 against Manchester United attack 0.86 / defence 0.84, drawn from 68/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 44% | Draw 25% | Manchester United 31%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 68%, Manchester United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Manchester United's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.66 PPG, Manchester United 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.27 average — above their attacking norm. Manchester United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights