Newcastle 0-2 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. James' Park plays host to Newcastle versus Liverpool in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St. James' Park, Newcastle have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. James' Park.
Liverpool (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Liverpool away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Liverpool hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Liverpool winning.
It is worth noting that Liverpool have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 51% versus Liverpool 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 42% | Liverpool 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.82 xG and Liverpool 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.018 / defence 0.746 | Liverpool attack 0.929 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.149. Liverpool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Newcastle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Newcastle's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Newcastle games / 59 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 62% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 16%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Liverpool 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Newcastle 40% | Liverpool 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 62% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Newcastle 1.82 / Liverpool 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.018 / def 0.746 | Liverpool attack 0.929 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Liverpool xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Liverpool kick off?
Newcastle vs Liverpool kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Newcastle 0 - 2 Liverpool.
Where is Newcastle vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Liverpool part of?
Newcastle vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 62% chance of winning, Liverpool a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Newcastle and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Liverpool?
Record (3 meetings): Newcastle 0W | Draws 0 | Liverpool 3W.
What form are Newcastle and Liverpool in?
Newcastle (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Liverpool (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Newcastle's attack at 1.02x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (0.93x) against Newcastle's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.47
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.62
0.80
Liverpool xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
3%
38.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.80 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 23W 21D 15L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool's form line: 37W 13D 9L from 59 games, 2.10 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Newcastle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (14W 11D 4L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 15W 6D 8L from 29 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newcastle are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.20 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 23W 21D 15L in their last 59 games (1.53 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 37W 13D 9L in their last 59 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Liverpool away?
Newcastle's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.83 PPG; Liverpool away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Liverpool in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Liverpool go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 4-1 on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Newcastle
1
Draws
9
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 0, Liverpool have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 48%, Liverpool 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Newcastle) and 72% (Liverpool). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Liverpool in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Newcastle's recent matches and 52% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Newcastle's matches and 72% of Liverpool's.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Newcastle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Newcastle 0-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.82 xG and Liverpool 0.80 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Newcastle fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Liverpool outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.02 / defence 0.75 against Liverpool attack 0.93 / defence 1.29, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 62% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 16%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Liverpool win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 42%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Liverpool's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.53. Form held, and they took the win. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Liverpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.