Newcastle 0-1 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Liverpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. James' Park plays host to Newcastle versus Liverpool in Premier League, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at St. James' Park, Newcastle have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Liverpool (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Liverpool away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Liverpool arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 2.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Newcastle 0W, Liverpool 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with Liverpool winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 58% versus Liverpool 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 46% | Liverpool 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.04 xG and Liverpool 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.003 / defence 1.034 | Liverpool attack 1.237 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.298. Liverpool have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Newcastle games / 33 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 24% | Draw 24% | Liverpool 52%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Liverpool 1.92. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Liverpool if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Newcastle 50% | Liverpool 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 24% | Draw 24% | Liverpool 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Newcastle 1.04 / Liverpool 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.003 / def 1.034 | Liverpool attack 1.237 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Liverpool xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Liverpool kick off?
Newcastle vs Liverpool kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Newcastle 0 - 1 Liverpool.
Where is Newcastle vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Liverpool part of?
Newcastle vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 24% chance of winning, Liverpool a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Newcastle and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Liverpool?
Record (1 meetings): Newcastle 0W | Draws 0 | Liverpool 1W.
What form are Newcastle and Liverpool in?
Newcastle (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Liverpool (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Newcastle's attack at 1.00x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Liverpool's attack (1.24x) against Newcastle's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 34/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
24%
4.20
24%
4.10
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.71
1.66
Liverpool xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
5%
22.15
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.66 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 11W 10D 12L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Liverpool's form line: 24W 7D 2L from 33 games, 2.39 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Newcastle.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (7W 6D 3L).
On the road, Liverpool have gone 10W 4D 2L from 16 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newcastle are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.58 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Current Season
Liverpool
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 11W 10D 12L in their last 33 games (1.30 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 24W 7D 2L in their last 33 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.69 PPG; Liverpool away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Liverpool in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Liverpool go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Liverpool won 4-1 on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Liverpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Newcastle
1
Draws
9
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 0, Liverpool have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 62%, Liverpool 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Newcastle) and 69% (Liverpool). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Newcastle's recent matches and 44% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Newcastle's matches and 69% of Liverpool's.
Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Newcastle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Newcastle 0-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.04 xG and Liverpool 1.66 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Newcastle fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Liverpool attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 24% | Draw 24% | Liverpool 52%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 46%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Liverpool's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.