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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Liverpool defy the odds to beat Newcastle 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Newcastle 2-3 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.88 xG and Liverpool 1.29 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Liverpool outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.21 / defence 0.93 against Liverpool attack 1.18 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 51% | Draw 23% | Liverpool 26%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Liverpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 59%, Liverpool 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Liverpool's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights