Newcastle 1-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Newcastle and Fulham meet at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Newcastle's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Newcastle have posted 6W 4D 0L at St. James' Park — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. James' Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fulham (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fulham have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.40 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Newcastle 1W, Fulham 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 4–1 with Newcastle winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Newcastle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 52% versus Fulham 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 46% | Fulham 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.46 xG and Fulham 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.032 / defence 0.699 | Fulham attack 1.062 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.265. Newcastle's defence rating of 0.699 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Newcastle games / 19 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 49% | Draw 27% | Fulham 24%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Fulham 4.17. Newcastle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 30% | Fulham 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 49% | Draw 27% | Fulham 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Newcastle 1.46 / Fulham 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.032 / def 0.699 | Fulham attack 1.062 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Fulham xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Fulham kick off?
Newcastle vs Fulham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Fulham?
Newcastle 1 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Newcastle vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Fulham part of?
Newcastle vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 49% chance of winning, Fulham a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Newcastle and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Fulham?
Record (1 meetings): Newcastle 1W | Draws 0 | Fulham 0W.
What form are Newcastle and Fulham in?
Newcastle (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Fulham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Newcastle's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.06x) against Newcastle's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 56/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.66
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.40
0.94
Fulham xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
6%
18.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.94 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 22W 18D 16L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 31W 11D 14L from 56 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Newcastle against 1.86 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 1.81 PPG from 27 outings (13W 10D 4L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 14W 5D 8L from 27 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newcastle are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.12 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Fulham in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 22W 18D 16L in their last 56 games (1.50 PPG), while Fulham have gone 31W 11D 14L in their last 56 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Fulham away?
Newcastle's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.81 PPG; Fulham away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Fulham in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 1-4 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Newcastle
0
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 5, Fulham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Fulham 2-0 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Fulham?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 48%, Fulham 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Newcastle) and 56% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fulham in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Newcastle's recent matches and 52% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Newcastle's recent games and 56% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Newcastle edge out Fulham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Fulham 1-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.46 xG and Fulham 0.94 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fulham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.03 / defence 0.70 against Fulham attack 1.06 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 49% | Draw 27% | Fulham 24%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 46%, Fulham 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fulham's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.50 PPG, Fulham 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.