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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crystal Palace.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Crystal Palace 2-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.56 xG and Crystal Palace 1.27 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Crystal Palace landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against Crystal Palace attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 43% | Draw 28% | Crystal Palace 30%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 61%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.61 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights