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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newcastle and Chelsea share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle and Chelsea finished level at 2-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.33 xG and Chelsea 1.28 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Chelsea attack 1.06 / defence 0.79, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 38% | Draw 26% | Chelsea 36%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 61%, Chelsea 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Chelsea's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.63 PPG, Chelsea 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights