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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chelsea.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Chelsea 2-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.16 xG and Chelsea 1.02 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chelsea landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.57 / defence 0.84 against Chelsea attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 63% | Draw 20% | Chelsea 17%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 68%, Chelsea 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Chelsea's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.68 PPG, Chelsea 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Chelsea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights