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Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Newcastle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Newcastle 1-4 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.86 xG and Bournemouth 1.25 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bournemouth outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.20 / defence 0.70 against Bournemouth attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 50% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 24%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Bournemouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 66%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Bournemouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.66 PPG, Bournemouth 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights