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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Manchester United and Wolves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United and Wolves finished level at 1-1 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.86 xG and Wolves 0.92 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Manchester United fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Wolves attack 0.68 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 60% | Draw 22% | Wolves 18%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 55%, Wolves 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Wolves's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester United arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights