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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Manchester United and West Ham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United and West Ham finished level at 1-1 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.75 xG and West Ham 1.28 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against West Ham attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 48% | Draw 23% | West Ham 28%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 55%, West Ham 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Manchester United 1.24 PPG, West Ham 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights