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West Ham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Manchester United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Manchester United 0-2 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.28 xG and West Ham 1.23 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Manchester United fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 0.84 / defence 1.02 against West Ham attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 38% | Draw 27% | West Ham 35%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual West Ham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 59%, West Ham 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

West Ham's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Manchester United 1.36 PPG, West Ham 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. Manchester United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights