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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 18

Kick-off

Fri 26 Dec 2025

20:00

Venue

Old Trafford

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester United Win

45%

Manchester United

2.24

24%

Draw

4.22

32%

Newcastle

3.17

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.6%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.1%

Home win

1 – 0

7.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.71

Manchester United xG

Total xG

3.12

1.41

Newcastle xG

45%
24%
32%
Manchester UnitedDrawNewcastle

2.24

45%

Home win

4.22

24%

Draw

3.17

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

60%

Over 2.5

1.67

40%

Under 2.5

2.50

38%

Over 3.5

2.63

62%

Under 3.5

1.61

21%

Over 4.5

4.76

79%

Under 4.5

1.27

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

62%

BTTS Yes

1.61

38%

BTTS No

2.63

Clean Sheet

24%

Manchester United

4.08

18%

Newcastle

5.54

Win to Nil

11%

Manchester United

9.13

6%

Newcastle

17.54

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.4 6.2 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.2
1 7.6 10.6 7.5 3.5 1.2 0.3
2 6.5 9.1 6.4 3.0 1.1 0.3
3 3.7 5.2 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.2
4 1.6 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.712
λ Away (xG) 1.407
Total xG 3.119
League avg home goals 1.555
League avg away goals 1.280
Manchester United attack strength 1.150
Manchester United defence strength 1.185
Newcastle attack strength 0.928
Newcastle defence strength 0.957
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 55