Manchester United 0-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Manchester United at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Manchester United vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to Old Trafford to face Manchester United in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Monday 24 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Manchester United (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Manchester United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Manchester United's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Old Trafford this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Everton have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Manchester United, 1.50 for Everton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Manchester United, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Everton — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Manchester United a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Manchester United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Everton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Manchester United 49% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Manchester United 55% | Everton 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Manchester United 1.82 xG and Everton 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Manchester United attack 1.226 / defence 1.008 | Everton attack 0.889 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.182. Data: 49 Manchester United games / 49 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Manchester United 55% | Draw 23% | Everton 22%. Fair-value odds: Manchester United 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Everton 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Manchester United (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Manchester United are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Manchester United 40% | Everton 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Manchester United vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Old Trafford • Kick-off: Monday 24 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Manchester United 55% | Draw 23% | Everton 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Manchester United 1.82 / Everton 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Manchester United attack 1.226 / def 1.008 | Everton attack 0.889 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Manchester United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Manchester United xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Everton xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Manchester United vs Everton kick off?
Manchester United vs Everton kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 24 November 2025 at Old Trafford.
What was the final score in Manchester United vs Everton?
Manchester United 0 - 1 Everton.
Where is Manchester United vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Old Trafford.
What competition is Manchester United vs Everton part of?
Manchester United vs Everton is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Manchester United vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Manchester United a 55% chance of winning, Everton a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Manchester United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Manchester United and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Manchester United vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Everton?
Record (8 meetings): Manchester United 5W | Draws 2 | Everton 1W.
What form are Manchester United and Everton in?
Manchester United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Everton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Manchester United's attack at 1.23x the league average against Everton's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.89x) against Manchester United's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester United Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.35
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Manchester United xG
Total xG
2.88
1.06
Everton xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
28.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Manchester United vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Manchester United and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Manchester United and 1.06 for Everton, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Manchester United vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Manchester United come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 12D 21L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Manchester United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.29 PPG from 49 outings (15W 18D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Manchester United against 1.29 for Everton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Manchester United's home form reads 11W 3D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.17 points per game from 24 outings (7W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Manchester United are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.10 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Manchester United
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Manchester United and Everton in coming into this match?
Manchester United have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Everton have gone 15W 18D 16L in their last 49 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Manchester United at home or Everton away?
Manchester United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Manchester United at home: 1.50 PPG; Everton away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Manchester United or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Manchester United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Everton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Manchester United won 4-0 on 1 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Manchester United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Manchester United
2
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Manchester United have won 6, Everton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Manchester United and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Everton 0-1 Manchester United.
Who has won more matches between Manchester United and Everton?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Manchester United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Manchester United 42%, Everton 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Manchester United) and 29% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Manchester United have failed to score in 38% of games; Everton in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Manchester United home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Manchester United play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Manchester United's recent matches and 42% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Manchester United vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Manchester United's recent games and 29% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Manchester United and Everton tend to score early?
Manchester United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Everton in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Manchester United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Manchester United 0-1 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.82 xG and Everton 1.06 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Manchester United fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.23 / defence 1.01 against Everton attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Manchester United 55% | Draw 23% | Everton 22%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 55%, Everton 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Manchester United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Manchester United 1.22 PPG, Everton 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Manchester United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.