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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brighton cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Manchester United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Manchester United 1-3 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.60 xG and Brighton 1.66 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Brighton outscored their 1.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Brighton attack 1.04 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 35% | Draw 27% | Brighton 38%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 63%, Brighton 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Brighton's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Manchester United 1.46 PPG, Brighton 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock. Manchester United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brighton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights