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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Manchester United edge out Brentford 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United beat Brentford 2-1 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.66 xG and Brentford 1.29 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.21 / defence 1.02 against Brentford attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 45% | Draw 26% | Brentford 29%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 55%, Brentford 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Brentford's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Manchester United 1.41 PPG, Brentford 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Manchester United win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights