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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Manchester United 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Manchester United 0-1 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.20 xG and Arsenal 1.42 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Manchester United fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Arsenal attack 1.12 / defence 0.87, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Manchester United 31% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 41%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 50%, Arsenal 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Manchester United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Arsenal's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Manchester United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Arsenal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights