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Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest – Predictions

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 14

Kick-off

Wed 4 Dec 2024

19:30

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

37%

Manchester City

2.72

27%

Draw

3.70

36%

Nottingham Forest

2.76

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.4%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.4%

Home win

1 – 2

8.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.61

Manchester City xG

Total xG

3.21

1.60

Nottingham Forest xG

37%
27%
36%
Manchester CityDrawNottingham Forest

2.72

37%

Home win

3.70

27%

Draw

2.76

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

62%

Over 2.5

1.61

38%

Under 2.5

2.63

40%

Over 3.5

2.50

60%

Under 3.5

1.67

22%

Over 4.5

4.55

78%

Under 4.5

1.28

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

66%

BTTS Yes

1.52

34%

BTTS No

2.91

Clean Sheet

20%

Manchester City

4.94

20%

Nottingham Forest

5.00

Win to Nil

7%

Manchester City

13.44

7%

Nottingham Forest

13.80

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.1 6.5 5.2 2.8 1.1 0.4
1 6.5 10.4 8.3 4.4 1.8 0.6
2 5.2 8.4 6.7 3.6 1.4 0.5
3 2.8 4.5 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.2
4 1.1 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.609
λ Away (xG) 1.597
Total xG 3.206
League avg home goals 1.548
League avg away goals 1.405
Manchester City attack strength 1.116
Manchester City defence strength 1.152
Nottingham Forest attack strength 0.986
Nottingham Forest defence strength 0.931
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 51 / 51