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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sat 21 Feb 2026

20:00

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

65%

Manchester City

1.53

24%

Draw

4.10

10%

Newcastle

9.65

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

12.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

11.7%

Home win

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.10

Manchester City xG

Total xG

2.89

0.79

Newcastle xG

65%
24%
Manchester CityDrawNewcastle

1.53

65%

Home win

4.10

24%

Draw

9.65

10%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

1.98

50%

BTTS No

2.02

Clean Sheet

45%

Manchester City

2.20

12%

Newcastle

8.18

Win to Nil

30%

Manchester City

3.38

1%

Newcastle

78.98

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.1
1 11.7 9.2 3.6 1.0 0.2
2 12.3 9.7 3.8 1.0 0.2
3 8.6 6.8 2.7 0.7 0.1
4 4.5 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1
5 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.102
λ Away (xG) 0.789
Total xG 2.891
League avg home goals 1.428
League avg away goals 1.267
Manchester City attack strength 1.387
Manchester City defence strength 0.675
Newcastle attack strength 0.922
Newcastle defence strength 1.061
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 64 / 64