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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 20

Kick-off

Sun 4 Jan 2026

17:30

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

56%

Manchester City

1.79

25%

Draw

3.97

19%

Chelsea

5.27

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.1%

Home win

2 – 1

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.89

Manchester City xG

Total xG

2.93

1.04

Chelsea xG

56%
25%
19%
Manchester CityDrawChelsea

1.79

56%

Home win

3.97

25%

Draw

5.27

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.77

44%

BTTS No

2.29

Clean Sheet

35%

Manchester City

2.83

15%

Chelsea

6.65

Win to Nil

20%

Manchester City

5.06

3%

Chelsea

35.05

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.3 5.5 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
1 10.1 10.5 5.4 1.9 0.5 0.1
2 9.5 9.9 5.2 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 6.0 6.3 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 2.9 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1
5 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.894
λ Away (xG) 1.039
Total xG 2.933
League avg home goals 1.506
League avg away goals 1.253
Manchester City attack strength 1.467
Manchester City defence strength 0.746
Chelsea attack strength 1.111
Chelsea defence strength 0.858
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 57