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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Sat 25 Jan 2025

17:30

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

41%

Manchester City

2.45

25%

Draw

4.04

34%

Chelsea

2.91

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

9.4%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.5%

Home win

1 – 2

7.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.80

Manchester City xG

Total xG

3.45

1.65

Chelsea xG

41%
25%
34%
Manchester CityDrawChelsea

2.45

41%

Home win

4.04

25%

Draw

2.91

34%

Away win

Goals Markets

86%

Over 1.5

1.16

14%

Under 1.5

7.14

67%

Over 2.5

1.49

33%

Under 2.5

3.03

45%

Over 3.5

2.22

55%

Under 3.5

1.82

27%

Over 4.5

3.70

73%

Under 4.5

1.37

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

69%

BTTS Yes

1.46

31%

BTTS No

3.19

Clean Sheet

19%

Manchester City

5.19

16%

Chelsea

6.07

Win to Nil

8%

Manchester City

12.71

6%

Chelsea

17.66

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.2 5.2 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.3
1 5.7 9.4 7.8 4.3 1.8 0.6
2 5.2 8.5 7.0 3.8 1.6 0.5
3 3.1 5.1 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.3
4 1.4 2.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.804
λ Away (xG) 1.647
Total xG 3.451
League avg home goals 1.478
League avg away goals 1.561
Manchester City attack strength 1.235
Manchester City defence strength 1.006
Chelsea attack strength 1.049
Chelsea defence strength 0.989
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 60