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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 6

Kick-off

Sat 27 Sep 2025

15:00

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

68%

Manchester City

1.47

19%

Draw

5.34

13%

Burnley

7.49

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

10.5%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

1 – 0

9.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.30

Manchester City xG

Total xG

3.23

0.93

Burnley xG

68%
19%
13%
Manchester CityDrawBurnley

1.47

68%

Home win

5.34

19%

Draw

7.49

13%

Away win

Goals Markets

83%

Over 1.5

1.20

17%

Under 1.5

5.88

63%

Over 2.5

1.59

37%

Under 2.5

2.70

40%

Over 3.5

2.50

60%

Under 3.5

1.67

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.83

45%

BTTS No

2.21

Clean Sheet

39%

Manchester City

2.53

10%

Burnley

10.01

Win to Nil

27%

Manchester City

3.73

1%

Burnley

74.96

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.9 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1
1 9.1 8.4 3.9 1.2 0.3 0.1
2 10.5 9.7 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 8.0 7.5 3.5 1.1 0.2
4 4.6 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.1
5 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.304
λ Away (xG) 0.929
Total xG 3.233
League avg home goals 1.382
League avg away goals 1.168
Manchester City attack strength 1.160
Manchester City defence strength 0.923
Burnley attack strength 0.861
Burnley defence strength 1.437
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 43 / 5