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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Wed 7 Jan 2026

19:30

Venue

Etihad Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Manchester City Win

66%

Manchester City

1.51

21%

Draw

4.71

12%

Brighton

8.02

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

10.7%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

1 – 0

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.25

Manchester City xG

Total xG

3.16

0.91

Brighton xG

66%
21%
12%
Manchester CityDrawBrighton

1.51

66%

Home win

4.71

21%

Draw

8.02

12%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

61%

Over 2.5

1.64

39%

Under 2.5

2.56

39%

Over 3.5

2.56

61%

Under 3.5

1.64

21%

Over 4.5

4.76

79%

Under 4.5

1.27

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.82

45%

BTTS No

2.21

Clean Sheet

40%

Manchester City

2.49

11%

Brighton

9.50

Win to Nil

27%

Manchester City

3.75

1%

Brighton

76.16

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.2 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.1
1 9.5 8.7 4.0 1.2 0.3
2 10.7 9.8 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 8.0 7.3 3.3 1.0 0.2
4 4.5 4.1 1.9 0.6 0.1
5 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.251
λ Away (xG) 0.911
Total xG 3.162
League avg home goals 1.497
League avg away goals 1.257
Manchester City attack strength 1.411
Manchester City defence strength 0.746
Brighton attack strength 0.972
Brighton defence strength 1.065
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 58 / 58